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In brief A Polymarket trader walked away with $252,000 in profit after the UFC incorrectly identified a fight’s winner for the second time in two weeks.
An X account linked to the Polymarket trader said that they had noticed the error by looking at the bout’s official scorecard.
The incident shows how athletes’ performances aren’t the only factor that can influence the perceived outcome of spotting events among bettors.
Winning bets on combat sports often hinge on kicks and punches, but a Polymarket trader notched a massive payday by taking advantage of the UFC’s latest “scoring error.”
For the second time in two weeks, UFC announcer Bruce Buffer misread a fight’s outcome, enabling a trader to place a $500 bet that spiked to more than $252,000 on Saturday. The win represented the trader’s best bet since joining the prediction market’s platform in January.
At first, American lightweight Chris Padilla was told, alongside millions of viewers, that he had bested MarQuel Mederos at UFC 327 in Miami, per talkSPORT. After a commercial break, however, commentator Jon Adik said the fight had actually been scored as a “majority draw.”
By that point, Polymarket’s platform assigned Padilla a 99.9% chance of winning the fight, indicating that the outcome had essentially been settled. After the commentator divulged the mistake, each fighter’s odds swung to 50% to reflect that neither had won.
I quickly bought all the shares at 0.1c & waited for the result to be corrected. pic.twitter.com/3R05RXWqPf — sito (@sitoslimy5) April 12, 2026
That was good for the Polymarket trader that bet on Mederos when the fighter had a 0.1% chance of winning the bout—resulting in a roughly 50,000% gain—and bad for bettors that had wagered on Padilla up to the point that his win was virtually erased from history.
The platform’s whipsawing odds serve as the latest example of how, when it comes to sporting events like the UFC’s, athletes’ performances aren’t the only factor and core broadcast members like Buffer can sway odds heavily—even if their statements are inaccurate.
The trader in question, who currently goes by JESUSCHRISTISGOOD on Polymarket, was among a handful that placed wagers on Padilla following Buffer’s mistake. Their profile points to an account on X, which explained how the error was caught ahead of time.
The user said they checked the fight’s official scorecard, and “after doing some maths,” determined that judges erroneously tallied points in favor of Padilla.
Prediction market skeptics, such as journalist Dustin Gourker, questioned on X why “the truth machine [was] telling us the wrong result.” Still, the Polymarket trader’s assessment shows that at least one individual was aware that the market’s odds were set to be corrected.
Polymarket has signaled alongside chief rival Kalshi that they’re refining systems for detecting suspicious transactions, while U.S. lawmakers have argued that their platforms should be bound by tighter restrictions to prevent insider trading and market manipulation.
Last month, Polymarket established a Major League Baseball partnership aimed at “protecting the integrity of the game” through a framework that also involved the CFTC. The UFC clinched a partnership with Polymarket last November, not long after the NHL announced a similar agreement.
“By bringing prediction markets to the broadcast and arena, we’re giving fans a new way to be part of the action,” Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said at the time, “not just watching outcomes but watching the world’s expectations evolve with every round.”