Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of the bear market’s late stages but could see another leg lower in the coming months, says Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform Alphractal.
Key takeaways:
BTC may still see one last big drop before recovering, based on one sentiment indicator.
The next likely downside target is near Bitcoin’s realized price at $54,000.
BTC index hints at a drop toward $54,000
In a Tuesday post, Wedson said Bitcoin’s 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index (TBBI), a long-term indicator that tracks multi-year cycles of fear and greed, had dropped into an extreme bearish zone below 20.
Historically, such readings have reflected “late-stage fear” among traders, a phase that can still produce one final shakeout before Bitcoin begins a more durable recovery.
Bitcoin TBBI vs. BTC price. Source: Alphractal
In 2022, for instance, Bitcoin fell more than 20% after the indicator reached similarly depressed levels.
A comparable setup also appeared before Bitcoin lost around 50% in 2018, prompting Wedson to see a similar possibility in 2026.
Related: Bitcoin RSI ‘nearly perfectly’ copying end of 2022 bear market: Analysis
He warned that Bitcoin could still face “a sharp move like a –$15K shakeout” over the next six months, implying a roughly 20% decline from current levels toward the $54,000 area.
More BTC indicators converge on $50,000–$55,000
The implied target matches earlier BTC downside calls that see Bitcoin falling toward the $50,000–$55,000 area on war-led oil inflation and quantum security risks.
The $54,000 level also nearly coincides with Bitcoin’s realized price (purple) on Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, suggesting any final shakeout could send BTC toward a key on-chain cost-basis support level.
BTC MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode
More bearish forecasts have also surfaced, with analysts such as Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone warning that Bitcoin could eventually slide to as low as $10,000.
Still, Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin purchases in recent weeks have helped absorb selling pressure and limit BTC’s downside, raising the possibility that the broader bearish scenario may fail to play out.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin could reverse sharply and climb back toward $100,000 or higher if the Michael Saylor firm continues its buying spree.