XRP (XRP) is staring at a potential drop toward $1.10, as a decline in profitable supply suggests growing bearish momentum and a classic setup for new lows.
Key takeaways:
XRP supply in profit has dropped to 43%, levels last seen in November 2024.
Investors kept selling their XRP holdings, realizing losses at $110 million per day.
XRP rising wedge breakdown targets $1.10.
XRP supply in profit drops below 50%
As of April 7, approximately 43% of all Bitcoin coins were in profit, levels last seen in November 2024, according to onchain data resource Glassnode.
Historically, the metric’s drop below 50% has signaled a transition from optimism to despair characterised by panic selling and high capitulation, as seen in the last stages of previous bear markets.
Related: XRP risk-reward improves as whale accumulation rises: Will price follow?
Between January and June 2022, for instance, XRP price dropped to $0.30 from over $0.75, a decline coinciding with XRP’s profitable supply falling to as low as 20% from just under 50%. A similar scenario was seen in 2018 when XRP price dropped another 70%, with the supply in profit going as low as 15%.
XRP supply in profit. Source: Glassnode
In fact, investors who accumulated XRP above $2 over the last 12 months “have been realizing losses at a pace of $20M–$110M/day since November 2025,” Glassnode added.
XRP: Realized loss by age. Source: Glassnode
In a Tuesday post on X, analyst Crypto Town Hall said this “reflects widespread holder drawdowns, often seen during late-stage corrections,” leading to sharp drops as holders continue realizing losses.
Additionally, the average wallets active on the XRP Ledger over the past year are down approximately 41% on their investments.
“This is the lowest MVRV (Mean Value to Realized Value) for XRP traders since the FTX crash in November, 2022,” onchain data resource Santiment said in a Tuesday post on X, adding:
“Significantly negative average returns imply that there is much lower risk than average in buying or adding on to your $XRP positions, due to the fact that competing traders are already in severe ‘blood in the streets’ territory.”
XRP Ledger: XRP MVRV data. Source: Santiment
This means fresh selling could be coming as investors seek to cut their losses, a key ingredient in keeping the downtrend going toward the $1.10 target.
XRP rising wedge breakdown targets $1.10
XRP/USD is in the breakdown phase of a rising wedge on the daily time frame, a bearish pattern that forms when price compresses inside two upward-sloping trendlines after a sharp decline.
XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The price slipped below the wedge’s lower trend line at $1.37 on March 27 and is now attempting a typical post-breakdown retest near the 50-day simple moving average around $1.38. That area is acting as immediate resistance.
If XRP fails to reclaim the trendline and moving averages, the setup points to a deeper move toward the pattern’s measured target near $1.10, roughly 16% below the current levels.
This is close to predictions by Polymarket bettors who price in a 57% chance that XRP price will hit $1.20 before the end of April.
XRP price targets for April. Source: Polymarket
As Cointelegraph reported, if bulls fail to reclaim the moving averages and the price breaks below $1.27, the XRP price risks falling toward $1.11 and eventually to the $1 psychological level.