Bitcoin is in an uncomfortable spot, and this time the warning is coming from a cycle signal that has shown up at some of the market’s most decisive turning points.
The leading cryptocurrency has crossed a technical threshold in the Gaussian weekly uptrend that has appeared at the same stage of every prior market cycle, and according to one closely followed analyst, it may be pointing toward both a final dip to the bottom and the last discounted entry before the next bull run.
The Gaussian Channel Flip That Matters
In a technical update posted on X, ChartNerd pointed out that Bitcoin has flipped from its green Gaussian weekly uptrend into a red bearish channel, a transition he says has always opened the final stretch of every prior Bitcoin bear market.
According to the chart, which is shown below, each cycle follows a familiar sequence of a strong green expansion phase, a transition highlighted as a trend flip, and then a red bearish channel that leads into the final sweep.
Examining the multi-year logarithmic Bitcoin weekly timeframe chart shows that the pattern is visible across the 2014/2015 cycle, the 2018/2019 bottom, and the 2022 cycle low. The current trend flip looks like those previous transitions, and this places Bitcoin once again at a point where the trend has always moved into bearish territory.
According to ChartNerd, this signal has consistently appeared right before the last major downside move in past bear markets. This is why the analyst does not interpret the signal as the beginning of a prolonged collapse. However, it could be seen as a late-stage development, which shows the Bitcoin price is nearing a bottom.
Bitcoin Trend Flip. Source: @ChartNerdTA On X
The Path To The Bottom
Bitcoin is currently down by about 47% from its October 2025 peak price of $126,080. There is still a possibility of further downside from this point, but most of the structural damage to price has already occurred. ChartNerd’s current read places the projected final low somewhere in Q2 and Q3 2026, with a target sweep range between $40,000 and $50,000.
In another analysis post, ChartNerd noted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle structure is still intact despite recent supercycle narratives and that the current market still operates within that structure.
Bitcoin Gaussian Channel. Source: @ChartNerdTA On X
The Gaussian Channel on the price chart shows that the Bitcoin price is on a path to test the channel’s red baseline at $66,895 on the 27-day timeframe, with the lower red support at $44,463. Each prior cycle saw a brief dip to or below that red support line. This means that the Bitcoin price may still face one more period of downside volatility to this range before reversing higher.