Bitcoin (BTC) has a target market that is “probably a lot bigger” than gold’s $30 trillion market cap, says a crypto industry executive.
Key points:
Bitcoin should continue to outperform during geopolitical crises, says Bitwise’s Matt Hougan.
Bitcoin’s “addressable market” could surpass gold’s near $40 trillion market cap.
A trader eyes a return to $90,000 for Bitcoin after a historic drawdown against gold.
Bitcoin “probably” beats gold target market
In an X article on Tuesday, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of crypto asset manager Bitwise, saw geopolitical conflict fueling BTC price gains in future.
“Bitcoin has performed well since the start of the Iran conflict,” he noted.
“Since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began on February 28, bitcoin is up 12% while the S&P 500 is down 1% and gold has fallen 10%.”
Macro asset comparison. Source: Matt Hougan/X
Bitcoin rallied to $76,000 this week, hitting two-month highs on a combination of US-Iran war relief and cooler US inflation numbers, per data from TradingView.
“This has caught many off guard. Bitcoin is a risk asset, and many assumed it would fall during a risk-off geopolitical shock,” Hougan commented.
“Pundits have grasped for explanations: Some have argued that geopolitics is irrelevant for bitcoin, while others have pointed out that war often leads to money printing, which tends to boost bitcoin in the long term. Both arguments are wrong.”
For Hougan, the nature of recent conflicts — notably Russia being shut out from the SWIFT network in 2022 — has bolstered Bitcoin’s status as an “apolitical alternative.”
“I mused at the time that the weaponization of SWIFT might one day open up space for bitcoin: If countries grew reluctant to deal in dollars, it stood to reason that they might prefer an apolitical alternative at some point,” he continued.
Now, with Iran under both financial sanctions and an oil blockade, collecting crypto tolls for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, that “weaponization” trend is strengthening.
“This framing tells you two important things about bitcoin’s future,” the post summarized.
“First, it tells you that bitcoin is likely to rise during future geopolitical conflicts -— particularly if they occur in regions trapped between the US and Chinese systems. And second, it tells you that bitcoin’s total addressable market is probably a lot bigger than the $38 trillion gold market alone.”
Bitcoin vs. gold sparks $90,000 BTC price target
In gold terms, Bitcoin is currently recovering from a trip to its lowest levels since mid-2023.
Related: Oil price surges 8% on Iran tensions: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
BTC/XAU one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The rebound has been slow, even as Hougan predicts the end of the current “crypto winter.” For some, however, the writing is on the wall when it comes to a meaningful bullish trend change.
In an X post of his own, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe predicted that “mean reversion” for Bitcoin was just a matter of time.
“The recent correction of $BTC vs. Gold is the heaviest in the history of Bitcoin,” he noted.
“Comparing this to historical events, the average return after 12 months was 350-450% from this point. That means, from here an increase from $60,000 to $275,000. In 3 months time, it’s very likely that we’ll be trading at $87,500-90,000.”
BTC/USD vs. gold one-week chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Comparing behavior after other drawdowns, Van de Poppe said that the “moral of the story” was to “buy the dip” on BTC.
“This is the general moment every cycle that you’d want to get allocated into an asset,” he argued.