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In brief Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $411 million Tuesday, as Bitcoin topped $75,000.
BTC surged 10% from around $68,1000 to $75,600 in two weeks, fueled by easing geopolitical tensions and improving liquidity.
A temporary de-escalation of the Iran conflict and net liquidity rebound acted as key drivers, Decrypt was told.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract significant inflows in April, with experts citing easing geopolitical tensions and improving risk appetite among investors.
Bitcoin ETFs drew in $411 million on Tuesday, marking the second-largest inflow of the month behind April 6’s $471 million, according to SoSoValue data. The inflow coincides with the leading crypto’s recent rally in April.
Bitcoin surged from around $68,100 on April 1 to $75,600 on Tuesday, noting over 10% gains, according to CoinGecko data. Over the past 24 hours, it has dropped by around 1% and is currently trading at around $73,860.
According to Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, there are two reasons for this bullish leg.
“A temporary easing of geopolitical conflicts, which spurred a marginal recovery in global risk appetite and a substantive improvement in the liquidity environment,” Sun told Decrypt.
Sun further explained that the significant rebound in net market liquidity noted since early April also helped improve risk appetite, specifically for traditional risk assets like the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
“Consequently, the combination of recovering risk appetite and warming liquidity pushed Bitcoin rapidly above $75,000,” he said.
That shift is visible in the market metrics. The improved investor risk appetite can be seen across multiple perpetuals and options metrics; the Coinbase premium indicator, which shows demand from U.S. investors, has been positive since April 8. Additionally, the improved 25 delta skew shows easing selling pressure from options investors, as noted in a previous Decrypt report.
Downside risks remain
Experts remain skeptical that a sustained uptrend will emerge from this.
“It’s important to keep the broader context in mind,” Georgii Verbitskii, derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, told Decrypt. “The market still looks weak and unstable, more consistent with a bearish or transitional phase than a strong uptrend.”
He added that investor expectations for large, sustained moves “should remain low,” and investor sentiment should remain “cautious.”
The mixed signals are reflected on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan. Users now see a 59% chance that Bitcoin’s next major move will be a pump to $84,000, down from 64% a day earlier.
Meanwhile, the probability of a spring crypto “bloom” has risen to 51%, up from 35% on April 1.
Other downside risks that could undo Bitcoin’s push to $75,000 include the U.S. tax season, typically running from mid-to-late April. This period could include portfolio rebalancing and keep the upside capped.
“Based on the Treasury’s financing and cash management rhythm, the Treasury General Account’s balance is likely to return to over $1 trillion. This implies that the Treasury will once again withdraw liquidity from the market system, potentially suppressing high-elasticity risk assets like Bitcoin.” Sun explained.
If the $73,000 to $75,000 range holds, and downside risks do not multiply, Sun highlights $79,000 as the next key level to watch.