Since falling from its all-time high in 2025, the Bitcoin price has failed to initiate another major upward move, reinforcing the bear market narrative. After this sharp downward action over the past few months, the amount of BTC supply in loss is spiking hard, reaching levels not seen in years.
Profit Supply On Bitcoin Contracts To Multi-Year Lows
Bitcoin’s price may have witnessed a brief upswing, reclaiming the $72,000 mark, but the underlying structure remains highly bearish. The prolonged negative price performance has started to influence BTC’s market dynamics, with supply in the loss territory rising at a fast rate.
With the price of Bitcoin falling sharply, Darkfost, a market expert and CryptoQuant’s verified author, revealed that profit supply has collapsed, nearing levels last seen in the last bear market phase. This decline, which reflects the strain of recent market activity, indicates that an increasing percentage of holders are either at breakeven or sitting on unrealized losses.
Darkfost stated that nearly 1 BTC out of 2 is held at a loss as of Thursday. To be precise, the share of Bitcoin supply still in profit is estimated at around 59%, a level that almost aligns with what was observed during the last bear market. According to historical data, the average level sits closer to about 75% of supply in profit. Therefore, the current market cycle is now below typical levels.
These levels can trigger periods of capitulation or consolidation, but they also frequently indicate a decline in market confidence and a diminished motivation to sell. While it may seem counterintuitive to some crypto players, the expert claims that the market clearly needs investors to make profits in order to maintain a positive momentum.
However, the key level to watch out for is 50%, which could completely flip the market structure, as bear markets have often bottomed around this area. Given the market state, this metric should be closely watched since it helps assess when losses or profits become significant across the market, allowing for a relatively straightforward strategy.
Specifically, this strategy involves accumulating when losses hit extreme levels, putting some investors ahead of a majority of players. It also helps to manage exposure when profits approach 100%. As profit margins shrink across the network, the current environment seems more of an accumulation phase than selling at this stage.
BTC Bear Market Is Still Active
As the debate regarding a bear market bottom heats up, a crypto analyst has offered insights on the matter, noting that Bitcoin has yet to hit a bottom. The expert’s analysis is backed by signals from the BTC Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score. While some considered the $60,000 level as the bear market bottom for BTC, the expert has dismissed this narrative.
According to the expert, the MVRV has not yet fallen into the green bottoming zone, which means the bear market is still active. In terms of timing, the analyst has predicted an additional 6 months into the bear market. As a result, another major drop for BTC is inevitable.