Bitcoin (BTC) should find a floor near $55,000 in the second half of 2026, a new prediction says.
Key points:
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score metric still needs to match old bear-market bottoms to signal trend change, says CryptoQuant.
That should result in a trip to $55,000 in late 2026 before a market rebound.
Going forward, the next cycle top is expected in the second half of 2029.
Bitcoin MVRV Z-score gives new $55,000 target
In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on Friday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant set out the timeline for Bitcoin’s next “iron bottom.”
“Bear market bottoming is a marathon of exhaustion,” contributor Sunny Mom wrote.
“While data suggests we are halfway through, a final ‘wash-out’ is likely still ahead. As the saying goes: history may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
CryptoQuant flagged three onchain indicators to support the theory that the next bear-market bottom is still ahead. Among them is the market value to realized value (MVRV) Z-score.
MVRV measures the price at which the BTC supply last moved, also known as its realized cap, versus the value of all BTC in existence (its market cap). The Z-score divides the resulting ratio by the standard deviation of market cap, giving clear “overvalued” and “undervalued” ranges for Bitcoin at a certain price point.
“This valuation metric is cooling but has yet to enter the negative/undervalued zone,” the analysis noted.
“Every ‘iron bottom’ in history has seen this score dip below zero; currently, the market is merely cooling, not despairing.”
Bitcoin MVRV Z-score data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
The last time that the MVRV Z-score dipped below zero was during the bottoming phase of Bitcoin’s last bear market in 2022. Sunny Mom sees history “rhyming” between October and December this year.
“Target: $55K – $60K, coinciding with a sub-zero MVRV Z-Score,” they concluded.
Bottom to precede “two-year accumulation phase”
In January, Cointelegraph reported on two-year rolling Z-score values already undercutting old bear-market floors and other periods of intense market stress.
Related: Bitcoin RSI ‘nearly perfectly’ copying end of 2022 bear market: Analysis
At the time, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe predicted that Bitcoin was “near the end” of its latest macro drawdown.
Meanwhile, Crypto Mom saw the second half of 2029 as a likely blow-off top for Bitcoin’s next bull run.
“Rationale: Following a late 2026 bottom, we expect a two-year accumulation phase,” they argued, without giving a price target.
“Combined with the April 2028 Halving, the market typically peaks 12–18 months post-halving, making late 2029 the likely window for the next parabolic bull run.”