XRP closed Q1 2026 with a 27.1% decline from its quarter open, extending a correction that has now erased more than 60% from the token’s July 2025 high of $3.65. The current structure now leaves the XRP price at an important decision point heading into Q2, where the next move could show whether this is a pause before recovery or part of a deeper correction below $1 in the new quarter. A recent technical analysis shared on X lays out both possibilities, but the tone says caution is the dominant theme for now.
Q1 Played Out As Expected. Here’s What The Analyst Got Right
Going into Q1, the analyst had flagged that XRP’s correction in 2025 was not yet complete and that one more low was likely before the formation of any sustainable rally. That forecast proved accurate. XRP dipped below $1.20 in early February, precisely within the support zone the analyst had identified. The dip eventually bottomed around $1.16 on February 6 before a recovery of about 55% from that low in the same month.
The move, however, did not translate into a full trend reversal, and the XRP price struggled throughout March. Price action across the weekly structure still reflects a market struggling to reclaim strength. The rebound failed to push into higher resistance zones above $1.5. This bearish price action eventually ended up with a negative 2.79% close in March, which is the sixth consecutive month of bearish closes.
XRP Weekly Price Chart. Source: @Morecryptoonl On X
A Temporary Bounce In Q2, But Not A Full Bullish Reversal
As it stands, the XRP price is now sitting at an important decision point, and the analyst is distinguishing between two scenarios heading into Q2. The primary focus is on whether it can sustain a corrective bounce, which is labeled as a “B wave” based on the Elliott Wave theory, back to the $1.76 to $2.86 resistance band.
According to the analysis, any meaningful recovery in Q2 would need to push decisively into this region. A move above $2 would begin to validate the idea of a broader rally. This prediction is based on the 50% Fibonacci extension at $2.03380 and the 61.8% level at $2.34157, both on the weekly chart.
The current expectation leans toward a corrective bounce rather than a full breakout. A move higher in April or early Q2 is considered possible, especially since a similar bounce already occurred earlier in the year.
However, the structure of that bounce matters more than the bounce itself. If the price action forms a three-wave move upward, it would likely confirm a B-wave scenario, meaning the rally is corrective in nature and not the start of a new bullish cycle.
In that case, the XRP price could still be setting up for another leg down (a C wave), which may unfold later in Q2 or extend into Q3.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com